Which forecasting method relies on expert judgment rather than numerical data?

• A. Time-series analysis.
• B. Judgmental forecasting.
• C. Delphi method.
• D. Regression analysis.

Answer: (B)

Forecasts that come from human insight rather than numerical signals rely on expert judgment to estimate future outcomes. This approach is used when historical data are insufficient, unreliable, or not applicable to a new situation, so knowledgeable people draw on experience and domain understanding to form predictions.

Time-series analysis, by contrast, uses numerical data collected over time to detect patterns like trends and seasonality and project them forward. Regression analysis also hinges on numerical data to quantify relationships between variables and forecast outcomes. The Delphi method is a structured way to collect and refine expert opinions, representing a specific technique within the broader practice of judgmental forecasting.

So, the concept described is judgmental forecasting, since it centers on forecasts derived from expert judgment rather than numerical data. The Delphi method is a particular process used to gather that expert input, but the overarching idea remains judgmental forecasting.